Christmas Day Weather in Dallas-Fort Worth, 1985–2016: White Christmas or Warm Winter? Part 3 of a Weather Study of the DFW Area
By Mark Wright
Introduction: My first Christmas in North Texas was 1985, when I was six years old. I remember how cold it was for Santa’s arrival — as if he’d brought the weather with him from the North Pole — and how it stayed ice cold all Christmas Day. I say ice cold, not literally icy, because we don’t get freezing precipitation in Dallas Fort Worth very often. But the white stuff did fall on Christmas in the afternoon in 2012. I remember that day vividly because my brother and I loaded up a large gift in the back of his pickup in the cold rain around 7 a.m. that morning. That was a chilly Christmas. But in the past couple of years, Christmas Day has felt like springtime. That’s fine if you’re in Hawaii. But I remember Christmas as generally having a frosty morning and a chilly afternoon. But is that really the norm for Navidad? To find out, I did a 32-year study of Christmas weather in North Texas. I used the Weather Underground web site to find the weather conditions at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport for 12/25 from the year 1985 to 2016. All temperatures are in degrees Fahrenheit and all precipitation is in inches. Did the Yuletide weather of my youth match my memory, or was I just dreaming of a White (or at least, freezing) Christmas?
RESULTS
Extremes
Lowest High: 30 (1985)
Lowest Low: 19 (2004)
Highest High: 80 (2016)
Highest Low: 69 (2016)
Most Rain: 1.91" (2000)
Most Snow: 0.40" (2012)
Averages
Average High: 53.2
Average Low: 33.3
Average Precipitation: 0.14"
The Highs
Highs in the 80s: 1
Highs in the 70s: 1
Highs in the 60s: 7
Highs in the 50s: 11
Highs in the 40s: 9
Highs in the 30s: 3
Highs below freezing: 1 (30 in 1985)
The Lows
Lows in the 60s: 1
Lows in the 40s: 4
Lows in the 30s: 18
Lows in the 20s: 7
Lows in the Teens: 1
White Christmas?
Freezes: 16
Snowfall: 2
Snow on the ground: 3. I remembered that it snowed on Christmas Eve, 2009. My findings for Christmas Day 2009 listed no snow on 12/25, but a snow depth of two inches from the previous day’s winter blast.
Trends
Average High in First 16 Years of Study: 49.9
Average High in the Final 16 Years of Study: 56.4
Average Low in First 16 Years of Study: 31.1
Average Low in the Final 16 Years of Study: 35.5
Doesn’t Feel Like Christmas Lately: From 1985 to 2014, there were no Christmases in 30 years with highs above 68. The past two Christmases have felt like Hawaii with highs of 73 in 2015 and 80 in 2016. There hasn’t been a freeze on Christmas since 2012, although 2013 had a low of 33, just a degree above the freezing point. But it would be a mistake to assume cold weather is no longer a part of the typical North Texas Christmas. The four-year stretch of 2009 to 2012 averaged a high of just 44.8. A tad earlier this century, there was a four-year stretch from 2001 to 2004 when the average low on Christmas was 27.8. The current stretch of warm Christmases could be followed by a period of years with an Arctic blast for the holidays. The recent warm trend, in other words, is not a reliable predictor of future Christmases.
Discussion: The children (or grown-up children) of North Texas can expect Santa to arrive on time, and they can reasonably expect it to feel like Christmas, even if the ground is bare, not snow-covered. The low was at or below the freezing mark in half (16) of the years of this study. But as in my studies of Halloween and Thanksgiving, the high temperatures are significantly warmer in the second half of the study. The two most recent Christmases have played into that number in this Christmas Day weather study. But still, Christmas was more consistently cold in the first half of the study. It’s not enough, however, to just say Christmas is trending warmer. The most unsettled weather in this period has come in the past 17 Christmases, starting with nearly two inches of rain/freezing rain in 2000, a storm that ended with a light dusting of snow after dusk. It snowed three inches on Christmas Eve 2009, leaving a snow depth of two inches on Christmas Day. And then in 2012, a cold rain in the morning gave way to light afternoon snow. So, it does still get cold for Christmas, but the warm Christmases seem to be becoming more numerous than in the early years of the study.
Conclusion: Lately, it hasn’t “felt” like Christmas. And this is a valid observation, because, for the first 30 years of the study, Christmas often came with freezing weather and highs in the 40s and 50s (sometimes colder, sometimes slightly warmer). But sorry, Bing Crosby, that sheet of white probably will be only in your dreams. Snow isn’t unheard of in these parts, but it falls short of being a North Texas Christmas staple. Hopefully, the tropical weather of 2015 and 2016 won’t prove to be a new Christmas standard, either. Christmas is cold much of the time. Lows are below 40 in all but five years of this 32-year study. The studies of Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas show warmer weather, especially regarding daytime highs, in the past 16 years. Cold weather hasn’t gone away. In fact, unsettled cold weather might be more common nowadays: sleet or snow storms could actually be more frequent for Christmas these days than in the past. But overall, it’s a little discouraging to find that the weather has lately tended not to be as cold as it was when I was a kid.
Weather Conditions for Dec. 25 in Dallas-Fort Worth, 1985–2016
1985: 30, 23, no precip
1986: 57, 39, no precip
1987: 43, 37, 0.93"
1988: 60, 33, no precip
1989: 66, 21, no precip
1990: 46, 26, no precip
1991: 50, 30, no precip
1992: 55, 44, no precip
1993: 57, 39, no precip
1994: 59, 32, no precip
1995: 46, 30, no precip
1996: 48, 26, no precip
1997: 51, 32, 0.02"
1998: 39, 21, no precip
1999: 55, 32, no precip
2000: 37, 32, 1.91" (cold rain/freezing rain)
2001: 52, 30, no precip
2002: 46, 23, no precip
2003: 61, 39, no precip
2004: 48, 19, no precip
2005: 65, 45, no precip
2006: 50, 35, 0.13"
2007: 62, 33, no precip
2008: 68, 37, no precip
2009: 40, 25, no precip (2.00" of snow depth from 3.00" 12/24 snow)
2010: 41, 33, no precip
2011: 50, 41, no precip
2012: 48, 28, 1.33" (0.40" Snow)
2013: 57, 33, no precip
2014: 62, 34, no precip
2015: 73, 44, no precip
2016: 80, 69, 0.00" (Trace)
